Iran’s relations with Central Asia to remain unchanged as new president takes office

Last Updated on July 31, 2024 12:12 am

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has officially confirmed Masoud Pezeshkian as the country’s new president, following a ceremony broadcast by IRIB and attended by high-ranking officials and theologians in Tehran.

Pezeshkian’s inauguration is scheduled for July 30 at the parliament building, with over 300 foreign guests expected, including Turkmenistan’s Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov. Turkmenistan and other Central Asian nations, which view Iran as a gateway to the Persian Gulf, anticipate that Pezeshkian will continue the “Look to the East” policy set by the late President Ebrahim Raisi.

In his article “My Message to the New World,” Pezeshkian outlined his vision for Iran’s foreign policy. Experts predict that while the strategic direction will stay the same, Pezeshkian’s approach will be more multi-faceted.

Alexander Knyazev, a leading research fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO, Russian Foreign Ministry, commented,

Knyazev highlighted that Iran’s political system includes multiple checks and balances. Presidential decisions can be vetoed by parliament, which largely supports Rahbar’s policies. This structure, combined with Pezeshkian’s commitment to Rahbar’s direction, suggests that significant shifts in Iran’s foreign policy are unlikely.

The “Look to the East” strategy will remain a cornerstone of Iran’s foreign policy. Knyazev emphasized that Iran’s role in the emerging multipolar world will continue under Pezeshkian’s leadership, though the new president is expected to focus more on domestic issues, such as economic management and social welfare.

Pezeshkian’s campaign included plans to appoint Javad Zarif, the architect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as Minister of Foreign Affairs. However, due to the perceived damage during Hassan Rouhani’s presidency, it is unlikely that parliament will support this appointment. Knyazev also noted that reviving the nuclear deal is unrealistic, as the U.S. is more focused on broader confrontations with Iran.

The inauguration of Pezeshkian involves a two-part ceremony. On July 28, Khamenei officially approved Pezeshkian as president, and on July 30, he will be sworn in. Delegations from 80 countries, including high-profile representatives like EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, will attend. Turkmenistan’s Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov will participate, though President Serdar Berdimuhamedov will extend congratulations via phone and invite Pezeshkian to visit Ashgabat.

Central Asia expert Serdar Aytakov noted that Turkmenistan-Iran relations are generally smooth but occasionally complicated by border issues. Turkmenistan’s role in the North-South transport corridor, facilitated by the Serakhs railway crossing, is crucial for gas policies in Turkmenistan and Russia. Recent agreements between Gazprom and Tehran underline this importance.

Turkmenistan recently signed an agreement with Tehran to supply 10bn cubic meters of gas, with plans to increase supplies through the Dauletabad field to Iraq under a swap system. This agreement requires Iran to build compressor stations and a new pipeline on Turkmen territory. Aytakov pointed out the unclear alignment of Gazprom’s intentions with this agreement, as existing infrastructure may support reverse gas flow to Iran.

Aytakov also highlighted the delicate personal relations between Turkmen and Iranian leaders. After Raisi’s death, Turkmenistan’s National Leader Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov visited the Iranian embassy in Ashgabat, though this visit and Serdar Berdimuhamedov’s absence from Raisi’s funeral were not publicized, reflecting a cautious diplomatic stance towards Iran.