New political polarization in the Middle East, why is war the only option for Netanyahu?

Last Updated on October 30, 2024 6:00 am

Benjamin Netanyahu is the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel’s history. A far-right Jew and the leader of the Likud party that has ruled Israel for a long time, Netanyahu was once quite popular. But his popularity has plummeted in recent years. Especially during his second term, he was accused of authoritarian rule and widespread corruption. As a result, Netanyahu lost power in the elections.

But later he came to power again by forming an alliance with anti-Palestinian far-right parties. However, since taking power for the third time, violent protests have begun against his government. Demands for Netanyahu’s resignation have intensified over the latest Gaza war. Analysts say that Netanyahu is prolonging the war by staying in power.

Israel’s war with Hamas has already passed a year, but the Israeli forces have not been able to free all the hostages so far. As a result, ordinary Israelis are turning against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government.

In January, as Israelis were protesting for Netanyahu’s resignation, families of Hamas hostages attacked the Knesset, the Israeli parliament. The attackers demanded a deal with Hamas for the hostages’ release.

A conversation with Dov Waxman, a researcher on Israeli politics and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, further clarified the anger of the Israeli public. Dov Waxman and other experts say that Netanyahu does not want to end the Gaza war.

Various studies show that Israeli public opinion on the war is changing dramatically. For the first three months or so of the war, Israelis, especially Jewish Israelis, strongly supported the war. Because the Netanyahu government declared the defeat and elimination of Hamas as the goal of the war. That public opinion and unity are quickly eroding.

Netanyahu said that the best way to free the hostages is to continue the war. However, thousands of Israelis, including the families of the hostages, argue that the longer the war takes, the more at risk the lives of the hostages become.

Doubts are also growing day by day about whether Israel can really defeat and eliminate Hamas completely. However, by assassinating the two main leaders of the resistance organization, Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, as well as the head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, Netanyahu has been able to turn the situation in its favor for the time being. But where it was supposed to be crushed within 24 hours; a year of unequal war has passed and Hamas is still alive – indicating its existence. Moreover, despite all this, the Netanyahu government has not yet confirmed the indication of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. On the contrary, when a new polarization of the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is being observed in the Middle East, bypassing Israel; it is not yet time to say for sure where the situation will settle down. Moreover, despite inflicting significant damage on Hamas and Hezbollah, Netanyahu is not stopping the war.

Naturally, the question arises as to why Netanyahu does not want to end the war?

An article in Asia Times states that Netanyahu is widely unpopular in Israel. Many Israelis blame the unprecedented attack by Hamas on October 7 (2023) for the failure of the Netanyahu government, including many of Netanyahu’s right-wing supporters.

So Netanyahu’s only recourse in restoring domestic support is to continue the war and achieve the “complete victory” against Hamas that he has promised the people. And if Netanyahu fails to achieve a complete victory in the war, including the release of the hostages, then his Likud party is likely to lose the next election and he will also be ousted from power.

If Netanyahu wants to keep his coalition government intact and avoid an election under this political pressure, he will have to appease the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties in his government. That is, he will have to ensure government subsidies and welfare funds for the ultra-Orthodox parties. Because they depend on it. At the same time, it must be ensured that they do not have to serve in the Israeli military. At the same time, the religious status in Israel must be maintained.

On the other hand, to appease the far-right parties, Netanyahu will have to support Israeli settlers in the West Bank and take initiatives to expand settlements there. At the same time, he will have to prevent the Palestinian Authority from becoming stronger. Because the far-right wants to be free from the influence of the Palestinian Authority.

In addition, to keep the far-right allies in the government, Netanyahu will also have to think about post-war Gaza. That is, any plan must be prevented so that the Palestinian Authority does not lose control over post-war Gaza. Any discussion by Netanyahu on the post-war Gaza issue will be considered a betrayal, because the far-right is calling on Israel to re-establish Jewish settlements in Gaza.

On the other hand, the administration of US President Joe Biden is opposed to a long-term Israeli presence in Gaza. At the same time, Washington wants to revive a reform that would eventually return the Palestinian Authority to the supervision of the territory, replacing Hamas.

As in both crises, Netanyahu’s way of avoiding this conflicting pressure is to avoid as much as possible discussions about the post-war governance of Gaza. Of course, that is what Netanyahu has done so far. He has only said that the right to control security in Gaza must be transferred to Israel. But what is actually going to happen in practice is still completely unclear, especially when the US media itself, the New York Times, has reported on the new polarization of the establishment of an independent Palestinian state without Israel, led by Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Most Israeli Jews, however, are paying attention to the fate of the hostages and the casualties of the Israeli military. Even the coverage of the Israeli media seems to give priority to these two issues.

The families of the hostages say their suffering is not to be forgotten. Moreover, the accounts of their harrowing experiences in captivity by the hostages who have already been released have drawn public attention to the hostages in Gaza.

In addition, the deaths of Israeli soldiers in Gaza have also attracted the attention of ordinary Israelis. On January 23, 24 soldiers were killed in Gaza. It was the deadliest day for the Israeli military since the start of the war. In addition, the Israeli army has been more or less admitting the number of its soldiers’ casualties, although experts believe that this is much lower than the actual number. This is because Israel does not usually disclose the true picture of its losses. Most Israeli Jews serve in the military and most have family members or friends currently serving in the military. In other words, the connection between Israeli Jews and their military is very deep. Naturally, major military losses shake Israeli society very strongly.

Recently, news has emerged in the Israeli and Western media that many Israeli soldiers returning from Gaza are committing suicide, and many are unable to lead normal lives. In interviews, some have said that what they saw in Gaza was something no one else had seen or that it was not worth revealing. Such incidents have created panic in the families of serving Israeli soldiers.

On the contrary, most Israelis do not pay attention to the suffering of Palestinian civilians in Gaza. Many ordinary Israelis do not even know what is happening to the Palestinians in Gaza. Because the plight of the Palestinians does not receive much coverage in the Israeli media.

Now the question is – what kind of pressure is being put on Netanyahu by the families of the hostages or ordinary Israelis against the government and its inability to free the hostages? In this context, experts on Israel say that it has a big impact. Because ordinary Israelis have wide sympathy for what these families are saying. Moreover, Israel has a strong policy that it is the government’s moral duty to rescue any of its soldiers or citizens in distress.

Many Israelis believe that the state fundamentally failed to protect its citizens on October 7th; because the state of Israel was unable to prevent or stop the massacres (1,200 people are claimed to have been killed in the Hamas operation) and the kidnappings (Hamas fighters are claimed to have taken more than 250 Israelis hostage and taken them to Gaza) that took place that day. Therefore, the repatriation of the hostages is now the government’s exclusive responsibility. Even if Israel defeats Hamas; if it cannot free the hostages, it will remain a permanent wound in Israeli society. At the same time, the relationship between the Israeli state and its citizens, even if it does not break down at once, will create a distance or distrust.

Now the question is – will the Israeli military be able to free the hostages? Experts say that the hostages are being held in hundreds of miles of underground tunnels. Their location is probably changed frequently. Therefore, it is impossible to identify them. Even if their location is identified, it is very difficult, absolutely impossible, to rescue them alive from the hands of the kidnappers.

In this situation, the only possible option to free the hostages is to make another deal with Hamas. But it will be very difficult for Netanyahu to accept the conditions that Hamas has given for another deal, including an end to the war. Although Netanyahu and his defense minister argue that the more military pressure Hamas is under, the more likely it is that they will agree to a deal on easier terms.

However, it seems that we will have to wait for some time to see where the future of Gaza or Palestine or Netanyahu stands in the changed situation. In particular, the results of the upcoming US presidential election are considered important for the situation in the Middle East.