Will the fate of Sheikh Hasina affect Bangladesh-India relations?

Last Updated on September 17, 2024 9:42 am

Since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, there have been many discussions about the relationship between Bangladesh and India. Among these, the issue of sending Hasina, who has taken refuge in India, back to Bangladesh for trial or her extradition has become the most important. Some say that the future of Dhaka-New Delhi relations depends a lot on the fate of Sheikh Hasina (sent back to the country or not).

Recently, a report on this has been published by the German media Deutsche Welle. It has been said that the demand to extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh to face trial is getting stronger day by day.

Advocate Mohammad Tajul Islam, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal, recently termed Sheikh Hasina as the ‘main culprit’ responsible for the horrific violence.

Bangladesh has an extradition treaty with India, he told reporters, which was signed in 2013, when Sheikh Hasina’s government was in power. Since she (Sheikh Hasina) has been made the prime accused of genocide in Bangladesh, we will try to bring her back to the country legally and face trial.

Although the Indian government has not disclosed any details about Sheikh Hasina’s whereabouts, she is believed to be in a ‘safe place’. The new interim government of Bangladesh has already canceled Hasina’s diplomatic passport.

Advice to Hasina to keep ‘quiet’

Sheikh Hasina made a statement in India on August 13 demanding ‘identification and punishment of those involved in killings and vandalism’ during the anti-government protests.

Sheikh Hasina called on the people of Bangladesh to observe August 15 as a national day of mourning in the statement released through her son (Sajib Wazed Joy) who is stationed in the United States.

However, sitting in India, the head of the interim government reacted to such activities of Sheikh Hasina. Muhammad Yunus. He described Hasina’s comments as ‘problematic’.

In an interview given to the Indian news agency PTI, the chief adviser said that no one in India is comfortable with her (Sheikh Hasina’s) position. Because we want him back. He is in India and sometimes he talks, which is a problem. If he were silent we would forget; People used to forget it. But sitting in India, he is talking and giving orders. Nobody likes it.

He further told PTI, “It is not good for us or India. There is discomfort with this.

Hope for a ‘safe’ transition

Former diplomats and academics told Deutsche Welle that New Delhi might reject Dhaka’s request to return Sheikh Hasina.

According to Ajay Bisaria, India’s former High Commissioner to Pakistan, India will not hand over Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh under any circumstances, no matter how much pressure there is. But India would like her (Sheikh Hasina) to take shelter in any western country of her choice. This can be done in a way that does not strain India’s relationship with the new government of Bangladesh.

The former diplomat also said that if the situation stabilizes, India may send a high-level envoy, possibly the foreign minister, to visit Bangladesh to build relations with the new government. But if the visit comes while Sheikh Hasina is in India, it could hamper India’s efforts to build bridges.

Meanwhile, noting that Washington is not offering to accept Sheikh Hasina, former Indian ambassador Meera Shankar said, “Sheikh Hasina has taken refuge in India because the United States and the United Kingdom did not grant political asylum.”

Extradition talks are ‘speculative’!

South Asia expert Sriradha Dutta pointed to the long-standing ties between India and Sheikh Hasina’s government and said, “India is unlikely to disappoint Hasina through deportations.”

Sriradha, professor of international affairs at Jindal Global University, told Deutsche Welle that both governments (Bangladesh-India) need to show pragmatism and maturity in dealing with the situation. If Hasina is allowed to stay, it will affect the future relations between the two countries, it should not happen.

In a press briefing in late August, Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said the extradition was a “speculative matter”.

He told the reporters, ‘We have already said that the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh came to India at a very short notice due to security reasons. We have nothing more to say about this matter.’

Will New Delhi’s plans for Bangladesh continue?

Jaiswal also admitted that bilateral projects have been affected by the current situation in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia. Bilateral trade is also estimated at US$ 15.9 billion in FY 2022-23. Besides, both sides were supposed to start negotiations for a free trade agreement before Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power.

After the political change in Dhaka, the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, the Interim Government of Bangladesh. Spoke to Yunus and promised that New Delhi will continue to implement development projects in its neighboring countries.

Modi also reiterated India’s continued support for a democratic, stable, peaceful and progressive Bangladesh.

Dependence of Bangladesh on India

Sanjay Bharadwaj of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Center for South Asian Studies said Sheikh Hasina’s fate could create some unease at the highest political level. However, he thinks that it will not affect the important areas of cooperation between Bangladesh and India.

According to Sanjay Bharadwaj, the relationship is determined by the degree of interdependence in the non-political sphere. These include trade, investment, health, education and relations between the people of Bangladesh and India.

Sanjay told Deutsche Welle, “If the new government of Bangladesh understands the needs of its country, it will agree with India and not disrupt the ongoing development partnership due to its internal political problems and ambitions.”