How effective was India’s ‘Neighborhood First’ policy in 2024?
Last Updated on January 4, 2025 8:24 am
In the year that just ended, 2024, most of India’s neighboring countries went through political upheavals. There were also incidents in some countries, which led to tensions in the bilateral relations between those countries and India.
From Bangladesh to Maldives, India has faced problems in several places. On the other hand, progress has also been seen in the border dispute with China.
When Narendra Modi first took oath as the Prime Minister of India in 2014, the heads of government of almost all neighboring countries came to India.
For the first few years after taking oath, Modi visited only neighboring countries. From this, it was clear that neighboring countries would be given the highest importance in India’s foreign policy.
Officially, the policy was named ‘Neighborhood First’ or ‘Neighborhood First’. However, the first idea of this policy came in 2008.
The policy was designed to strengthen ties with neighboring countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Rising tensions with Bangladesh
After becoming Prime Minister, Narendra Modi has visited Bangladesh twice. Once on July 6, 2015, and the second time on March 26, 2021.
However, relations between the two countries have changed radically since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh in August 2024. Sheikh Hasina has been in India since August 5.
Since then, India has been constantly complaining to the interim government of Bangladesh that it is not able to ensure the safety of Hindus and other minorities in that country.
The rising tensions between the two countries are having a direct impact on trade. According to the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India’s exports in August 2024 fell by 28% compared to August 2023.
Professor Sanjay Bhardwaj of the Centre for South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi believes that the political upheavals in Bangladesh are an internal matter of that country, but that has not changed India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.
According to him, India’s policy has always been that along with the development of the country, neighboring countries should also be economically strong and political stability should be maintained there.
He believes that since the change of government in Bangladesh, the forces opposing Jamaat and Awami League have become stronger, as a result of which they are moving closer to Pakistan.
Professor Sanjay Bhardwaj says that these are the forces that never wanted Bangladesh to separate from Pakistan, so it is quite natural that they would be inclined towards Pakistan. Again, if we look at it from the Chinese side, then there is no such difference between Sheikh Hasina’s government and the current government. Muhammad Yunus also wants to improve relations with China.
Foreign affairs expert and director of The Image Institute, Ravindra Sachdev, believes that the biggest setback for India in 2024 will be the events in neighboring Bangladesh. This will have a major impact on the ‘Neighborhood First’ policy.
According to him, Sheikh Hasina’s absence from Bangladesh could lead to an increase in extremist activity in northeast India, as extremists did not find shelter in that country during her tenure. But now they have an opportunity to strengthen their position.
Which way are relations with Pakistan heading?
There are a few countries in the world where Narendra Modi has visited only once as Prime Minister. One of them is Pakistan. Narendra Modi invited the then Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif for his first swearing-in ceremony.
Modi also unexpectedly reached Lahore on Nawaz’s birthday. But the tension that arose between the two neighboring countries due to the incidents of Pathankot, Uri, Pulwama and Balakot is still going on. However, Pakistan is going through political and economic turmoil in 2024.
In such a situation, Pakistan invited India to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and Foreign Minister S Jaishankar was present there.
Earlier, when Sushma Swaraj was the External Affairs Minister, he visited Islamabad once in 2015.
Foreign affairs expert Ravindra Sachdev says that relations between India and Pakistan have been cold for many years and there has been no significant change in that situation in 2024.
He says that as long as Pakistan cannot stop anti-India propaganda and cross-border terrorism, the relationship between the two countries will not be easy.
On the other hand, tensions have been going on between the two countries throughout 2024 over the hosting of the ICC Champions Trophy in Pakistan in 2025.
Pakistan is the host country of the Champions Trophy, but the Indian cricket team has clearly said that they will not play in Pakistan. Now the Champions Trophy has been organized in a ‘hybrid model’, where India will play all its matches in Dubai.
India’s relations with Nepal are strained
Narendra Modi has visited Nepal five times as Prime Minister so far. The two countries share a 1,750-kilometer border.
The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) is currently in power in Nepal, led by party president KP Sharma Oli. He is known to be anti-India.
Oli made his first visit to China after becoming Prime Minister for the fourth time. Although Nepalese prime ministers traditionally visit India on their first foreign visit after taking office.
Nepal has joined the new framework agreement of China’s ambitious plan ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ after his government came to power. Nepal is the second country after Morocco to join the new framework of the BRI.
BRI is an infrastructure plan through which China is trying to challenge the authority of Western countries.
Professor Sanjay Bhardwaj, however, believes that Nepal is trying to ‘balance’ its relations with both India and China.
In his words, KP Sharma Oli wants good relations with China, but does not want to leave India either. He does not want to miss out on the opportunities that his country will get from China.
Nepal had alleged that India had undeclaredly blockaded their country in 2015.
Then, Nepal was angered by issues such as the inclusion of the Kalapani and Lipulekh areas on the Indian map in 2019, and the hanging of a map of the entire subcontinent, including Nepal, in the Indian Parliament building in 2023.
According to Professor Sanjay Bharadwaj, India’s dispute with Nepal has come to the fore in the past few years, but in 2024, there was no negative impact on the relationship between the two countries nor did any major controversy come to the fore.
Have relations with the Maldives improved?
Mohamed Moeed became the President of the Maldives in November 2023. During the election campaign, he raised the slogan of ‘India Out’, i.e., to expel India from his country. After he came to power, relations between India and the Maldives became extremely tense.
Narendra Modi visited Lakshadweep in early 2024 and shared some pictures from there and urged people to visit there.
After this appeal, some Maldivian ministers made negative comments about Modi and India, which led to a new dispute between the two countries.
According to Ravindra Sachdev, India had good relations with the Maldives, but after Moeed came to power, it deteriorated. He started making anti-India comments that no one had ever made before.
Ravindra Sachdev says that the Maldivian government was leaning towards China, but this is the first time India has completely backtracked. This is a matter of concern for India. After Mujib’s arrival, China’s presence in the country has increased, which is a matter of concern for India.
He also said that the statements coming on social media heated up the situation, but India made very thoughtful statements.
According to him, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar visited the Maldives in August 2024 on a three-day visit. During that time, several agreements were signed. Now it seems that the Maldives has become much more flexible towards India.
Talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan
The relationship between India and Afghanistan is historic. India’s border was adjacent to Afghanistan even until 1974.
When the Taliban came to power in the 90s, India did not recognize it. But after the US entered Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban were ousted. It was during this time that India once again appeared in Afghanistan and has invested more than three billion dollars there in the last two decades.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi also visited Afghanistan in 2016. But India’s efforts suffered a major setback in August 2021, when the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan for the second time.
At that time, it was thought that India would not get the same place under the Taliban regime that it had under Ashraf Ghani – because India had not recognized the Taliban before, and still does not.
Ravindra Sachdev said that talks between India and Afghanistan will progress through Qatar in 2024. Both countries have done their homework well behind the scenes, the results of which we may see in 2025.
Ravindra Sachdev says that, meanwhile, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have reached a very bad level, which is beneficial for India. If the Taliban government had leaned towards Pakistan, not only would India’s problems have increased, but it would also have been a strategic advantage for Pakistan.
The message from Sri Lanka’s new president
The island nation is as important to Sri Lanka’s foreign policy as India is to India’s. Both India and China prioritize Sri Lanka in their trade and foreign affairs.
A major reason for this is that Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean.
Sri Lanka witnessed massive anti-government protests in 2022. The people occupied many government buildings, including the presidential residence, and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee the country.
India stepped in to help Sri Lanka, which was sinking into a financial crisis, and a new government eventually came to power in 2024. Leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the presidential election.
According to Professor Sanjay Bharadwaj, Dissanayake chose India on his first foreign visit to send a message that Sri Lanka wanted to improve relations with India.
On the other hand, Ravindra Sachdev says that the way India helped Sri Lanka in its economic crisis and debt restructuring, India has made it clear which country is its real friend! China refused to help Sri Lanka in debt restructuring, while India stood by them.
Dissanayake also benefited from the help that India provided in that critical situation. He has also declared that Sri Lankan soil will not be used against India in any way.
Source: BBC Bangla