Big military success of the rebels, how long can the junta of Myanmar last?

Last Updated on September 29, 2024 8:42 am

The country’s rebel groups have made major military gains since the military junta seized power in Myanmar in 2021. A coalition of armed groups has ousted the junta and seized large parts of eastern Myanmar.

Called the ‘Brotherhood Alliance’, the alliance actually consists of three powerful rebel forces representing different ethnic groups. Their fighters are now close to Mandalay, Myanmar’s second city.

The Brotherhood Alliance, also known as the ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’, consists of three armed organizations representing ethnic groups in Myanmar’s border regions. The coalition is the latest force to emerge against the military junta in Myanmar’s civil war.

Who is in the Brotherhood Alliance?

The Brotherhood Alliance consists of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Tang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army. The Tang National Liberation Army is in the eastern part of the country and the Arkan Army in the western part.

In the past they have fought Myanmar government forces to bring more independence to their territories. Now they say that their goal is to overthrow the military government.

The military government came to power after overthrowing the civilian elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA, is primarily composed of members of the Kokang ethnic group living in northern Shan Province, near Myanmar’s border with China. People of the Kokang ethnic group speak Mandarin and identify themselves as Han-Chinese.

MNDAA was formed in 1989. The MNDAA was formed as a breakaway from the Communist Party of Burma, a guerrilla force opposed to the central government of Myanmar and supported by China.

The MNDAA has often fought with the government military in attempts to establish autonomy for the area where the Kokang live.

U.S. authorities say they make their own money through the drug trade. The US calls it the ‘drug insurgency’.

The armed forces of the ethnic group known as the Tang or Palaung are the Tang National Liberation Army or TNLA from the same northern Shan province. They have been fighting government forces since 2009 to gain more independence for the Tang region.

The Brotherhood Alliance’s third force, the Arakan Army, is made up of members of the Arakan community in Rakhine State, bordering Bangladesh. Like the other two forces, the Arakan Army has been fighting since 2009 for greater independence for their own region.

Yilong Xian of the Peace Research Institute, a think tank in Frankfurt, says the formation of these armed groups is similar to that of the regular army. They are more organized than rebel forces or militias.

How the Brotherhood Alliance Fights Since October 27 last year, three armed groups under the Brotherhood Alliance have launched a coordinated offensive across Shan Province against the Myanmar government army (known as the Tatmadaw). This operation was named ‘Operation 1027’.

According to the UK-based International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), around 10,000 fighters under the alliance took part in it.

Brotherhood Alliance forces overran government army posts and captured several towns. The MNDAA recaptured Laukkai, a major town on the Chinese border. MNDAA fighters were driven out of the town by the government military in 2015.

In late August, the MNDAA advanced towards Lashio in northern Shan Province and at one point captured the city. They also captured the northeastern headquarters of the Tatmadaw in Lashio. The fall of such an important army-centre to the hands of the insurgents has never happened before in the history of Myanmar.

At the same time, the TNLA advanced from Shan Province into central Myanmar. Members of the armed group are now on the doorstep of Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city. The population of that city is about 15 lakhs.

TNLA forces are located east of the city and members of a local armed group called the Mandalay People’s Defense Force are stationed in the hills north of Mandalay.

Can the junta be overthrown?

“This is a very serious threat to the military government,” said Morgan Michaels of IISS. Mandalay is a very important city in the middle region of the country.

He says the Brotherhood Alliance has opened a new way to defeat this government. They have advanced from Shan Province to Mandalay, possibly moving on to the capital Naypyidaw.

Control Risks, a firm that advises businesses on foreign affairs, says Myanmar’s government forces now control less than half of the country’s territory.

But Steve Wilford of Control Risks says the chances of government forces losing on the battlefield are low. They are now pouring money, manpower, weapons – everything into protecting Mandalay. What is most likely to happen is that as the war continues for months more, casualties will increase.

According to the Organization for World Peace, about 330,000 civilians were displaced during the Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027.

In early September, the MNDAA released a statement, likely under pressure from China. It is said that they will not attack Mandalay or Taunggi, the capital of Shan Province. It also said that it agreed to a ceasefire and would accept Chinese mediation in establishing peace with the military government.

However, the statement did not reflect the views of MNDAA, other allies AA, TNLA and Mandalay PDF.

What does the Brotherhood Alliance want?

Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) welcomed the victory of the Brotherhood Alliance against the military junta. It is a group of elected politicians ousted by the junta in 2021. While in exile in Thailand, they consider themselves the legitimate government of Myanmar.

The group aims to re-establish a civilian, democratic government in Myanmar. They also have their own armed group called the People’s Defense Force which is fighting against the government army.

Yilong Xian of the Peace Research Institute, a think tank in Frankfurt, said the Brotherhood Alliance said it agreed with the NUG’s goal of overthrowing the military junta, but that the two sides had not agreed to fight together against the military government.

He said what the Brotherhood Alliance groups want is more autonomy for their own regions.

According to him, their move towards central Myanmar is aimed at putting more pressure on the government.

Xian said their support for the NUG was only lip service. There is no plan that the two sides will launch a military operation together.

How is China involved?

According to Xian, China’s main goal is to keep the Myanmar conflict away from its borders. Many Chinese citizens sympathize with and fund armed groups such as the MNDAA.

He also said that the Chinese government initially appeared to support Operation 1027. This is because they wanted the MNDAA forces to drive out another armed group from the Kokang area. The group targeted Chinese citizens through cyber scams.

He said China intervened long ago to broker a ceasefire in previous clashes in northern Shan province. But this time he did not intervene until the MNDAA took full control of Kokang.

But the Brotherhood Alliance’s move towards central Myanmar seems to have taken China by surprise. They have lost some control over the situation.

According to Yilong Xian, the Chinese government pressured the MNDAA to make a statement declaring a cease-fire on September 4. However, they have made such statements before to please China.

He says all three groups will definitely continue to fight – especially the Arakan Army and the TNLA – because their control over their territories is still not stable.