Did India plot with Maldives’ opposition to oust Muizzu or is it just a ‘conspiracy theory’?
Last Updated on January 3, 2025 6:29 am
India’s alleged role in a plan to oust Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu for his perceived pro-China stance would yield little strategic advantage and appears baseless, according to experts who cast doubt on an investigative report that New Delhi considered such a move.
Following the report, published by The Washington Post on December 30, former Maldivian leader Mohamed Nasheed expressed scepticism about the story in a social media post.
“I was unaware of any serious plot against the president, though some people always live in conspiracy. India would never back such a move, as they always support Maldives’ democracy. India has never dictated terms to us, either,” he wrote.
The Washington Post report, based on an internal document titled “Democratic Renewal Initiative”, had detailed a plan allegedly hatched by agents of India’s intelligence agency and Maldivian opposition politicians early last year to remove Muizzu from office.
The plot reportedly involved Maldivian opposition politicians proposing to bribe members of parliament to vote to impeach him. The conspirators also reportedly sought 87 million Maldivian rufiyaa (US$5.6 million) to pay off army and police officers and criminal gangs to ensure Muizzu’s removal.
The report went on to say, however, that the plotters did not manage to gather enough votes for impeachment and India did not pursue any attempt to overthrow Muizzu.
Delhi has not yet issued an official response to the report’s allegations.
Muizzu came to power in November 2023 on the back of an anti-India platform and even signed a military assistance pact with Beijing. But in recent months, the Maldivian president has signalled a reconciliation with India and visited the nation in October.
India had signed a currency swap agreement with the Maldives to support the cash-strapped archipelago, helped develop a commercial port close to the Maldives’ capital Male, and agreed to enhance defence cooperation between the two countries.
India has maintained a diplomatic strategy of patience with neighbours and chosen to look past potential flashpoints, such as Male’s decision last year to order the withdrawal of a token Indian military presence.
Although the analysts who spoke to This Week in Asia could not independently confirm any of the investigation details, they expressed doubt about the alleged plot’s aims aligning with India’s geopolitical goals.
India was unlikely to deviate from its policy of strategic patience with neighbours, which appeared to be paying dividends, they added.
“What is striking is the restraint exercised by India,” said Uday Chandra, assistant professor at Georgetown University, saying that any move by Delhi to back opposition politicians in the Maldives to remove Muizzu could have caused a major rift with China.
“As it turns out, the tensions with Muizzu petered out over 2024, and India and China agreed to work out their border disputes in Kazan,” Chandra said, adding that the biggest takeaway from the chain of events was that Delhi had stuck to its policy of non-interference.
Relations between India and China, which have been frosty since a border clash in 2020, have improved since late last year as both countries have started disengaging troops along their border.
Chandra said Delhi’s policy of not interfering with neighbours was visible even in Bangladesh, where it had maintained a distance despite the ousting of Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who was seen as friendly towards India.
The Maldives has traditionally been an ally of India and remains a foreign policy priority for Delhi because the country is strategically located on an arterial shipping route in the Indian Ocean.
“India is not known for doing such covert operations in another country to topple a government, even when confronted with an anti-India position,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator.
“The more I watch how India reacts to things in international affairs, the more convinced I am that they [Delhi] like to wait and watch and let things unfold in their own way.”
Maldivian politicians concurred with Deshmukh.
The Maldives’ former vice-president Ahmed Adeeb dismissed the allegations in The Washington Post report.
“This is not the way India works. I believe Indian authorities will not pursue such a foreign policy. I would like to dismiss this conspiracy theory,” he said, adding that even the article alluded to Delhi not pursuing any such plan.
“In Maldives, the opposition will try to find a way to come to power like in any other country. It [the article] is talking of a period in the beginning of 2024 when nothing happened. I think this report is speculative.”
Adeeb said Delhi had bailed out the Maldives from a tough financial crisis, which could have led to a sovereign default. “I believe the relations between the two countries have improved,” he said, adding that the report was unlikely to cause any strain.
The track record of other big powers including America and Russia shows that they have tried to influence neighbouring countries, so it would be hypocritical on their part to allege any interference by India, according to Pushpesh Pant, former dean of the School of International Studies at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Pant said he doubted the report’s credibility.
“I am a critic of the present Indian government, but I think that all sovereign states are entitled to pursue their national interests as they wish,” he said.
However, the Indian government had generally been biding its time when faced with a diplomatic trouble spot in its own neighbourhood and “has been playing it cool”, Pant noted.