How the world can end the Rohingya crisis
Last Updated on August 3, 2024 8:27 am
Bangladesh is facing new challenges amid the ongoing Rohingya crisis, with more refugees seeking refuge across Bangladesh’s border to escape the ongoing civil war in neighboring Myanmar.
Rohingyas in camps in Bangladesh are eager to return home, and the International Court of Justice ruling on July 22, 2022, rejected Myanmar’s initial objections, paving the way for final accountability for the world’s most persecuted minority. However, critics argue that any repatriation plan must uphold the principle of non-refoulement.
A number of avenues have been put forward to involve various national and international stakeholders for Rohingya repatriation. The New Lines Institute released a landmark report last month on possible Rohingya repatriation options.
The most obvious approach is for Bangladesh to work bilaterally with Myanmar, as it has tried to do since the crisis began. This approach included the signing of a Memorandum of Arrangement in 2017 which stated that the return of displaced persons would begin soon and be completed in a ‘time-bound manner’.
However, this approach faces three major problems – signing an ‘arrangement’ rather than a legally binding agreement, lack of a clear timeline and an unclear process for repatriation. Flexibility allowed Myanmar to delay the process.
Moreover, during these bilateral meetings, an important issue seems to have been overlooked: Myanmar’s possible genocide and crimes against humanity. Despite clear evidence of widespread atrocities, Bangladesh’s diplomatic gestures, such as the gift of an ambulance to Myanmar, suggested a softer stance. This repressive approach, despite the moral high ground, has led to limited progress in repatriation efforts.
The involvement of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is critical. The 2017 arrangement included provisions for UNHCR and other UN agencies to support the return and resettlement of the Rohingya. However, significant progress has not been made and the focus of these organizations has shifted more towards Bangladesh than Myanmar.
An important area is education. The United Nations has called on Bangladesh to provide education to Rohingya refugees, but language is at the heart of the debate. It is essential to balance the need to communicate in the language of the host community and equip refugees with skills for their future in Myanmar. A dual policy of achieving 100 percent literacy and teaching English can benefit both the Rohingya and the local population.
In 2019, Bangladesh, Myanmar and China formed a Tripartite Joint Mechanism for Rohingya Repatriation. Several meetings have been held on a pilot project for the latest repatriation in Kunming in April 2023. China’s interest in resolving the crisis stems from its investment in both countries and its desire to curb Western influence in Myanmar.
China’s significant investment in Bangladesh and Myanmar drives its quest for stability. Furthermore, resolving the Rohingya crisis could enhance Beijing’s regional and global prestige. Despite these interests, the tripartite approach has yet to make substantial progress. The pilot project plans to repatriate more than 1,000 Rohingya refugees, but a mixed response from Rohingya representatives and a lack of UNHCR participation have created challenges.
The West has imposed limited sanctions on Myanmar’s military, but broader economic sanctions are needed.
Significant progress has been made in addressing accountability for crimes committed against the Rohingya over the past five years. The International Court of Justice has issued two provisional rulings recognizing the genocide by the Myanmar military and the identity of the Rohingya. It was a major legal victory for the Rohingya.
A court hearing on the Rohingya genocide took place in December 2019, with Gambia bringing charges against Myanmar. By January 2020, the court had granted the provisional measure requested by The Gambia. The verdict was unanimous, which Myanmar did not expect. The court’s identification of the group as ‘Rohingya’ was also critical, against Myanmar’s efforts to deny their identity. The recognition challenges Myanmar’s longstanding policy of disenfranchising and dehumanizing the Rohingya people, as enshrined in its 2008 constitution, which ties representation to ethnicity, thus excluding them.
Labeling Myanmar’s Rohingya as ‘Bengalis’ or ‘illegal immigrants’ has become untenable due to growing international scrutiny and legal pressure. The International Criminal Court and the United States have recognized the genocide, putting more pressure on Myanmar.
Sanctions are an important tool to enforce accountability. The West has imposed limited sanctions on Myanmar’s military, but broader economic sanctions are needed. Companies investing in Myanmar should also be held accountable for their involvement in these crimes. Economic pressure, if properly applied, could encourage Myanmar to change its policies.
Another possible approach that needs further exploration is decoupling, a principle of separating certain activities from others. Japan, for example, co-sponsored a UN resolution on behalf of the Rohingya, signaling a shift in its strategic interests. Recognizing the identity of the Rohingya and inviting their delegation could pressure Myanmar to acknowledge and resolve the crisis.
Economic incentives may also play a role. A so-called mini-martial plan for the Arakan region could provide Myanmar’s military with a legal and profitable alternative to the drug trade, boost stability and encourage Rohingya repatriation.
The possibility of militancy is a significant concern. The 2017 attack by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the subsequent military crackdown highlighted the volatile situation. Rohingya youth, especially those in refugee camps, are at risk of being drawn into militancy if the crisis remains unresolved.
These pathways are like an octopus, with each arm representing a different approach to solving the Rohingya crisis. Although some pathways show more promise, it is difficult to determine which will have the most lasting impact. The complexity and sensitivity of the situation requires patience and a multifaceted approach.
Source: Arab News