Myanmar’s military junta has regained key territory in recent months, reversing major losses from last year’s insurgent offensive with the help of Chinese diplomatic backing, new military technology, and intensified airstrikes that have devastated towns across the country.
The shift marks a turning point since Operation 1027, launched in October 2023 by the Brotherhood Alliance- a coalition of three powerful ethnic armies: the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army. The coordinated assault overran around 180 military bases and seized swathes of northern Shan State, raising speculation that the junta, which seized power in a 2021 coup, was on the brink of collapse, reports the BBC.
Among the opposition’s gains was the strategic town of Kyaukme, located on the Asian Highway 14- also known as the Burma Road- linking Myanmar to the Chinese border. But the junta swiftly counterattacked, retaking Kyaukme within three weeks and later reclaiming Hsipaw, the last TNLA stronghold in the region. Much of Kyaukme was flattened during the campaign, with daily airstrikes pounding the town until its fall.
Since then, government forces have also regained control of key border routes to Thailand and retaken several towns in Kayah and Karen States. The military has concentrated on securing major trade corridors and areas earmarked for an election it plans to hold in December, though much of the country remains outside its control.
China’s growing role
Analysts say the junta’s resurgence is due in large part to support from Beijing. China has “thrown its weight behind the junta,” arranging meetings between Myanmar’s military chief, Min Aung Hlaing, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and pledging technical and financial aid for the planned vote.
Beijing’s main priority is stability along its southern border, and Chinese officials reportedly intervened when the military appeared to be faltering late last year. “China wants order, not chaos,” said one regional analyst, noting that Beijing’s influence helped persuade several ethnic armies to halt their offensive, says the BBCs.
Under Chinese pressure, the MNDAA withdrew from the city of Lashio, while the powerful United Wa State Army (UWSA)- long a major arms supplier to resistance forces- agreed to stop providing weapons and ammunition to other insurgent groups. China has also tightened border controls and banned the export of dual-use goods, cutting off drone components and other equipment critical to the rebels.
Drone warfare and air power
The junta, which was initially caught off guard by the insurgents’ use of drones, has since turned the tables by acquiring thousands of its own from China and training its front-line units to operate them. These drones now help guide precision airstrikes, often carried out by Chinese- and Russian-made aircraft.
The result has been devastating. Airstrikes have intensified across contested areas, with at least a thousand civilians believed killed this year, according to local monitoring groups. Military units have also begun using motorized paragliders to drop bombs over lightly defended zones.
Conscription and battlefield recovery
The junta’s recovery has also been aided by a sweeping conscription campaign launched in late 2023, which forced more than 60,000 young men into military service. Combined with superior air power and new drone tactics, the influx of troops has helped the army regain momentum, says the BBC.
However, resistance remains strong in much of the country. Ethnic armies and “people’s defence forces” continue to control large parts of Rakhine and Chin States and operate across central Myanmar, even as divisions and mistrust hamper coordination.
The junta’s plan to hold elections in December- without the participation of Aung San Suu Kyi’s banned National League for Democracy- has been widely dismissed as an attempt to legitimize continued military rule.
While the army’s recent gains may have restored a measure of confidence in Naypyitaw, vast areas remain engulfed in conflict. With more than 100,000 homes destroyed and millions displaced, observers say prospects for peace or meaningful political dialogue remain remote.
