Why the sweet relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban is turning sour
Last Updated on December 29, 2024 6:49 am
When the Taliban took power in Kabul in August 2021, Pakistani Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed held a “victory press conference” at the Torkham crossing with Afghanistan. He said the Taliban’s rapid rise to power would be able to forge a “new alliance” and the region would become globally important.
Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Imran Khan also compared the Taliban’s return to power to the Afghans’ “breaking the chains of slavery.”
For nearly 20 years, the Afghan Taliban has waged a well-organized and long-term insurgency. At one point, they fought a coalition of more than 40 countries led by the United States. During this time, Islamabad sheltered Taliban leaders and fighters in Pakistan, especially in areas bordering Afghanistan. Taliban leaders also exerted influence and established connections in major cities such as Quetta, Peshawar and later Karachi.
Many Taliban leaders and fighters studied at several madrasas in Pakistan, including Darul Uloom Haqqaniyya, where the founder of the Taliban movement, Mullah Muhammad Omar, is said to have studied. In Pakistan, the Taliban found an environment that allowed them to develop normal relations with different sections of Pakistani society. As a result, they were able to organize and wage a deadly insurgency that began around 2003. Without Pakistan’s support and shelter, the Taliban’s successful insurgency would have been almost impossible.
Despite such cordial relations, how can we explain the recent deterioration in bilateral relations? The Pakistani military has carried out two airstrikes inside Afghanistan this year. The latest attack took place last week, the latest example of tensions between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban.
Historical and current reasons
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have always been complicated. While Pakistan has welcomed the Taliban as a natural ally in Kabul, the Taliban government has proven less cooperative than Pakistan had hoped. They are strengthening their position with nationalist rhetoric to gain broad support in Afghan society. Taliban leaders are keen to transform themselves from a fighting group into a government, an ongoing effort. They are trying to move beyond their over-reliance on Pakistan and build relationships with other countries.
Durand Line
The Durand Line is the colonial-era border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This line divides the two countries. However, no Afghan government has officially recognized the border since the establishment of Pakistan in 1947. Although the Durand Line is internationally recognized as the border between the two countries, Pakistan has fenced off the border almost entirely. However, the Durand Line has become an emotional issue in Afghanistan because it divides the Pashtun population on both sides of the border.
The Taliban government of the 1990s did not support the Durand Line, and the current Taliban government follows their predecessors. This has created a difficulty for Pakistan. Pakistan’s ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan is considered a challenge to its policy.
Increase in Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan
With the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan, the arena of armed insurgency seems to have shifted to Pakistan. Since 2022, there has been a significant increase in terrorist attacks on Pakistani security forces and police forces, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.
Most of these attacks have been carried out by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or the so-called Pakistani Taliban. The TTP and the Afghan Taliban have long had a close relationship. The two groups share shelter, tactics, and resources with each other, especially in Waziristan and other Pakistani regions bordering Afghanistan.
The significance and impact of tensions between the two countries
Pakistan has been demanding action against TTP leaders in the Afghan border areas. However, the Taliban is unlikely to comply with Pakistan’s demands. Such a move would destabilize the Taliban and TTP and create an opening for more extremist groups like the ISKP.
Taliban leaders have been saying for almost two decades that the TTP is Pakistan’s internal problem and Islamabad must resolve it on its own. Pakistan has been making the same argument about the Taliban issue in Afghanistan for so long. It was with this agreement that they ignored the demands of the Afghan government and the United States.
So the Pakistani army will probably continue bombing Afghan territory. The country will hardly be criticized in the international community for this. In addition, there is pressure on the Pakistani army to take effective measures to suppress militancy and protect the country’s infrastructure, especially Chinese-invested projects in Balochistan.
On the other hand, the Taliban government lacks the capacity to resist Pakistan’s aggressive stance due to its lack of resources, organized army and international partnerships.
In March 2024, a senior Taliban military leader said that the United States maintains control of Afghan airspace. US drones are occasionally seen in Afghan skies.
Although Taliban leaders have promised to “revenge” for Pakistan’s attacks, it is unclear how this will be possible. Because they do not have the capacity to resist a militarily powerful neighbor. At the same time, Pakistan is their long-term strategic ally.
Pakistan also has other ways to maintain influence over the Taliban. All trade in Afghanistan flows through Pakistan. Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees for decades.
However, Pakistan’s military operations in Afghanistan will only fuel anti-Pakistan sentiment among the Afghan people. It will further alienate Pakistani Pashtuns. The Afghan situation proves that the insurgency relies on societal anger, deprivation, and youth frustration.
Bold steps are needed to resolve the issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Reactive power may temporarily make headlines. But achieving peace requires intelligence and patience.
Pakistan and Afghanistan connect Central Asia and South Asia. Both countries have enormous potential to become regional economic hubs. Unfortunately, the lack of leadership and political will has been hampering the prosperity of 300 million people in both countries for the past generation.
Source: Al-Jazeera