Al Jazeera Analysis: Why Boothfert Polls Predict BJP’s Record Win

Last Updated on June 3, 2024 9:32 am

India’s one-and-a-half-month-long Lok Sabha elections ended last Saturday (June 1). A few hours after the end of the election, various polls were published in the evening.

Most polls predict that 73-year-old Narendra Modi is on course for a third consecutive term as prime minister and his party, the BJP, is set to return to power with a massive majority.

On the other hand, Boothfert polls predict that the opposition coalition is going to get a disappointing result in the just-concluded polls in the world’s largest democracy.

Booth polls are not always accurate. But even then, if the official results come in line with Boothfer polls’ predictions next Tuesday (the same day the Election Commission of India will officially announce the results), then Modi’s BJP will not only be unscathed in the face of massive wealth inequality, record unemployment and rising inflation, but more so than in the 2019 elections. will yield good results.

No other prime minister in independent India had won three consecutive Lok Sabha elections by increasing the number of seats each time. At least seven exit polls published in the Indian media predicted that the BJP and its allies, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), could win between 350 and 380 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats.

However, defying the predictions of these booth polls, the opposition ‘India’ coalition comprising of more than two dozen political parties, big and small, has expressed hope that they are going to overthrow the BJP Hindu majority government in these elections. They are confidently saying that they will ensure the majority on the day of the official results.

India has a record of botching polls. Past polls have either under-predicted or over-predicted the potential seats of various parties. But with few exceptions, surveys have mostly accurately predicted major trends over the past two decades.

A section of analysts say that if the BJP does really well in the elections, it will be mainly because of party leader Modi. They are also calling it ‘Modi Magic’. Nilanjan Sarkar, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based think tank Center for Policy Research (CPR), told Al Jazeera that Modi is extremely popular. That is why Modi was at the center of all BJP campaigns.

The opposition ‘India’ coalition was expected to do well in the southern states of the country. But most of the booth polls indicate that the BJP is going to make surprising gains in the southern states.

Several exit polls have predicted that the BJP could win two to three seats in Kerala. Modi’s party has never won in this state, known as the last stronghold of the Indian left. According to the polls, BJP is likely to get one to three seats in Tamil Nadu this time. BJP did not get any seats here in the last election.

This prediction, if ultimately realized, will strengthen the BJP in these areas known as opposition strongholds. Where the party has been struggling for decades to break into.

BJP and its allies are expected to retain their seats in Karnataka. In 2019, BJP won 25 of the 28 seats in the state. Besides, the NDA is likely to emerge as the single largest winning party in the southern state of Telangana.

Such results in Karnataka and Telangana signal a dramatic defeat for the main opposition Congress. But last year, the Bharatiya Janata Party led by the party defeated the BJP in the assembly elections in these two states.

In light of the forecast, political commentator Asim Ali said, BJP’s success in the south is surprising. Predictions indicate a huge success for the BJP in the south. Although they did not get as many seats as the polls gave to the BJP, the increase in their votes in the south is a big change.