Can Syria’s fragile economy turn around?
Last Updated on December 14, 2024 6:21 am
Syria’s economic situation has been deteriorating steadily as a result of the civil war that has lasted for almost 14 years. In such a situation, they need the help and cooperation of the whole world to turn around financially.
In 2011, the Syrian economy was worth $67.5 billion. That same year, violent protests against Bashar al-Assad began. The rebels increased their activity. A full-scale civil war began. Syria was ranked 68th among 196 countries in the world in terms of economy. Their GDP was comparable to Paraguay and Slovenia.
However, last year they were ranked 129th. According to the World Bank, their economy is now worth $9 billion. Now they can be compared to Chad and Palestine. As a result of the civil war that has lasted for almost 14 years, international sanctions, and the departure of 4.8 million people from the country, they are now known as one of the poorest countries in the Middle East.
According to the UN branch organization OCHA, 7 million people in the country are now homeless. Moreover, the country’s infrastructure is in a very poor state as a result of this long-term conflict. Electricity, transportation, and health systems are in poor condition. Many cities are covered in signs of destruction.
On the other hand, as the value of the Syrian pound has decreased as a result of the civil war, the purchasing power of the country’s citizens has also decreased. Last year, the inflation rate in Syria was serious. Last June, the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) reported that the Consumer Price Index was twice as high as the previous year. Their report says that half of Syrians are unable to buy even the minimum things they need to survive.
The two pillars of the Syrian economy are oil and agriculture. The civil war has hit them hard. In 2010, oil exports accounted for a quarter of the government’s revenue. Agriculture also accounted for an equal amount.
But rebels, ISIS, and Kurdish forces took control of the oil fields from Assad. Due to international sanctions, the government cannot export oil abroad. Oil production in the areas under Assad’s control has dropped to 20,000 barrels. Syria has become completely dependent on imports from Iran.
How soon will things turn around?
The answer to this question depends on who will be in power in Syria now. They will have to build cities, fix infrastructure. At the same time, they will have to use agriculture and oil fields properly.
Some experts believe that it will take Syria at least 10 years to reach the GDP of 2011. However, if political instability occurs after that, they fear that the situation in Syria will worsen.
The rebels, led by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have captured Damascus. They are now trying to form a new government. However, very strict international sanctions will remain in place in Syria.
The organization has been declared a terrorist organization by the United Nations and the United States. Western and Arab countries believe that HTS’ rule in Syria means the removal of Assad and the beginning of a hardline regime.
Delaney Simon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, wrote on social media, “Syria has very strict sanctions. When that country is trying to stand up, keeping these sanctions in place means removing the ground from under their feet.”
Experts do not think that any international organization will help Syria if these sanctions are in place.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden said on Sunday night that the United States can help them as much as possible. The United States will help them move from Assad’s rule to a sovereign, independent regime.
But US President-elect Donald Trump said that Washington should not get involved in Syria. The news agency AP reported that the Biden administration has discussed whether HTS can be removed from the list of terrorist organizations.
On the other hand, an EU spokesman said in Brussels on Monday that what HTS says is not a big deal. What they do is a big deal for the EU.
What could happen now?
HTS leader Mohammed al-Jolani spoke on Monday with Assad’s former prime minister and vice president about the transfer of power.
Shops were closed due to a nationwide curfew on Monday. Reuters reported that Syria’s central bank and two commercial banks will open from Tuesday (December 10). Employees have been asked to come to the office. The current Syrian currency will remain in place.
The oil ministry has asked all its employees to report to work, it said, adding that they will be protected.
UN aid chief Tom Fletcher wrote on social media on Sunday that they will stand by the Syrian people. Food, water, fuel, tents and blankets will be provided at reception centers.
Source: Deutsche Welle