Confusion over North Korea’s claims of developing new weapons

Last Updated on July 1, 2024 10:09 am

A recent North Korean weapons test has sparked renewed tensions between the two Koreas. Pyongyang has said it fired a sophisticated multiple warhead missile, and Seoul has accused the claim of being false.

A few hours later, North Korea’s state media started singing the praises of the ‘successful’ missile test. On Thursday, it also released some pictures related to this as evidence.

Meanwhile, South Korea called this claim of Pyongyang as “deception and exaggeration”. They have released their own evidence indicating that North Korea has indeed failed.

Meanwhile, analysts also expressed uncertainty about the veracity of North Korea’s claims.

Despite international sanctions, it is not easy to verify the extent to which North Korea is developing its weapons program due to various complications.

If North Korea’s latest claim is true, it would prove that it has made significant progress in its missile program. Intercepting multiple warhead missiles is difficult and acquiring the technology required to intercept such missiles is quite challenging.

Currently, only the United States—which developed such technology in the 1960s—has developed such technology. As well as the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China are also known to have such anti-missile capabilities.

Pyongyang is now announcing that it, too, is close to achieving such a capability.

North Korea may eventually acquire MIRV capability for some time, experts say.

MIRVs are re-entry vehicles that can be fired at multiple targets separately. It is a technology in which several warheads are attached to a missile that separate after launch.

The warheads are then propelled by their own rockets and hit various targets. These warheads are fired at different speeds, in multiple directions, and are capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometers apart. The weapon is considered particularly effective because of this feature.

Pyongyang said on Thursday it had “successfully tested the separation and direction control of each mobile warhead”. The first stage engine used in an intermediate-range solid-fueled ballistic missile is used in this weapon. It is also said to have installed three warheads and a decoy.

The missile was fired at a “short range” of 170 to 200 kilometers (105 to 124 miles) to ensure safety and measure the range of the warheads, state media said.

North Korea claimed each warhead hit its target ‘accurately’. On the other hand, the anti-air radar has also successfully detected the decoy placed on this weapon.

The test is considered to be “quite significant” in strengthening North Korea’s missile force.

Through this, North Korea has achieved ‘MIRV capability’ which is believed to be their biggest goal.

South Korea’s military, however, denied the claims, saying the “flight was not normal” and that the weapon exploded mid-flight. They released a video in this regard where some images of this weapon testing are available.

They claim that the beginning of the video shows a flight that is slightly unstable and then explodes in mid-air.

South Korean military officials said they had identified a large amount of debris.

They reported finding more debris than expected after a successful test run.

They also said North Korean images showed warheads and decoys separating from the missile. In fact, South Korea claims that they are photos of an intercontinental ballistic missile test conducted in March.

South Korean news agency Yonhap quoted analysts as saying the test was carried out at a range typically seen in intercontinental ballistic missile tests.

They believe the missile lacks guidance and may have problems with its control system. Other experts believe that some parts of the experiment have been successful—though much is still unknown.

Yang Wook, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said he believed the warheads had flown in the air and that they had separated properly.

However, he said, “North Korea has not released evidence of whether the warheads hit their targets – so we can’t say they succeeded here.”

Japan’s defense ministry said the missile flew at a maximum height of 100 km. This means that it did not enter outer space but stayed within the Earth’s atmosphere.

Dr. Yang said this means that “the warheads have not been tested to withstand high temperatures and pressures.”

South Koreans living on the border saw the test, and a civilian observer captured a video of the test that was later released by South Korean media.

In that video, a visible contrail i.e. a white line is seen in the sky in the direction in which the missile goes after the launch.

Van Van Diepen, a North Korean weapons expert and former US State Department official, said, “The video does not appear to indicate a major explosion or a catastrophic failure of the missile in the test.”

Contrails, or white lines, have been consistently seen in images released by North Korean state media.

“However, this cannot be said to have been a subtle failure,” he said, adding that there was no independent evidence that the warheads successfully flew on their own after release.

Regardless of the actual truth about whether the test was successful, one thing is clear: North Korea may have had some success.

Observers said that Pyongyang will gain the necessary technical information from this missile launch, thus putting itself a step ahead in achieving its MIRV capability.

The North Korean government publicly set this target in 2021.

The MIRV missile will be awarded based on its “productivity,” Van Diepen said.

Especially in a scenario where North Korea’s missile arsenal could be depleted after an enemy first strike.

Even if this week’s test was successful, he said, it would not be enough to complete the development of such a weapon.

But he believes North Korea is “at least a few years away” from achieving that goal.

The missile test comes days after North Korea’s previously scheduled plenary session.

At the meeting, North Korean officials gather to review how they have fared in the first six months of the year.

So such a missile test right before such a meeting may not be a coincidence.

According to other experts, the North Korean military may have deliberately launched the missile ahead of the meeting to demonstrate its success.

But with this weapons test, North Korea could send a message of continued deterrence. It can also send a signal of a country’s power to enemies.

Washington has said little in response to North Korea’s latest weapons test. They released a brief joint statement with Japan and South Korea condemning the incident.

Source: BBC