Sinwar’s death: What strategy will Netanyahu adopt now?

Last Updated on October 26, 2024 5:34 am

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is seen as a major victory for Israel. He was one of Hamas’ top leaders and the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel.

While his assassination may have led to a change in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, it is not certain that it will happen immediately. However, the situation has become more complicated since his death.

Netanyahu now faces many challenges. Sinwar’s death could open up diplomatic talks, such as the release of prisoners. However, the broader picture of the conflict between Israel and Hamas and with Hezbollah in Lebanon does not seem to have changed immediately. Both sides are still steadfast in their positions. Israel has continued its military campaign, and Hezbollah has also signaled its further involvement in the conflict.

In addition, Netanyahu will have to take into account the regional dimension. In particular, Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah and the potential for conflict in Lebanon. Despite pressure from international leaders, such as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who have called for Sinwar’s death to be used as a diplomatic opportunity, the Israeli government’s current position suggests that military objectives are being prioritized.

So while Sinwar’s death is significant, there is no immediate sign of a softening of Israeli strategy. Netanyahu’s government seems intent on continuing its campaign for the time being.

Meanwhile, discussions are underway on Israel’s next steps after the death of Yahya Sinwar. US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have praised Sinwar’s death, viewing it as a step towards increased security for the world.

Biden had previously cited Sinwar as a major obstacle to ceasefire talks. However, many analysts and officials believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also obstructed the talks.

Western powers see Sinwar’s killing as a turning point, which will give Netanyahu’s hard-right government political support and say that their goal has been achieved. But Israel is still committed to the goal of completely destroying Hamas, so that it cannot exist as a military force and part of the Gaza regime.

Meanwhile, Hamas has refused to release prisoners until the war ends and Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza. Hamas is not primarily a leadership-centric organization, so it will be able to quickly elect a new leader after Sinwar’s death. And for this reason, many believe that Sinwar’s death will further boost the morale of Hamas fighters and strengthen their efforts to recruit new fighters.

Analysts believe that Israel can now intensify its campaign by destroying a large part of Hamas’s leadership and inflicting major military losses.

Even after Sinwar’s death, the long-running conflict between Israel and its enemies continues. Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Israel all hope to benefit from this conflict. As a result, it has become a test of endurance.

Iran’s strategic goal is to exhaust Israel’s resources. Iran has opened up multiple fronts and is pressuring Israel from multiple directions. It is tiring Israel by escalating the conflict from Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq and creating pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza.

In this regard, Riad Kahouzi, CEO and military expert at INEGMA Middle East, a security and defense research organization, said that Iran is using the strategy of tiring Israel through this conflict. Since October 7 last year, Iran’s goal is to exhaust Israel’s resources. They are trying to open various fronts to blockade Israel and pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Kahouzi also said that Israel’s internal weaknesses, including the economic crisis, are putting additional pressure on them. He believes that the losses of Lebanon or Hezbollah are not that important for Iran. Because this is just another battlefield in which Iran is not directly involved. Although Lebanon is not strategically important to Iran, Hezbollah continues to fight on Iran’s behalf as a major militia group.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to resist Israeli forces on the Lebanese border. Israel also continues to attack Hezbollah strongholds and deploys its ground forces.

Israel has stepped up its military operations in Lebanon since September 23, 2023, and has been carrying out airstrikes on Hezbollah strongholds. Israeli ground forces have also carried out operations inside Lebanon, killing at least 1,552 people.

The United States, along with other Western and Arab countries, are pursuing diplomatic efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict. But hopes for peace are fading.

Diplomatic representatives, such as US special envoy Amos Hochstein, have visited Lebanon to work towards a lasting solution to the conflict. However, Hochstein has noted that simply acting in accordance with previous UN resolutions will not be enough.

Meanwhile, Israel’s long-term strategy in Gaza remains unclear. It is focused on destroying Hamas. However, Netanyahu has no clear plan for what to do next.

Some analysts believe that in an ideal situation, an Arab coalition, perhaps led by Egypt, could take control. But that seems unlikely at the moment.

Despite pressure from the United States and other Western and Arab countries to end the conflict, the prospects for peace remain slim.

In short, the death of Yahya Sinwar may have closed a chapter. But Israel’s long-term military and strategic struggle is still ongoing.

(Following a report in Al Arabiya)