What will be Iran’s role in Hezbollah under Qassem’s leadership?

Last Updated on November 3, 2024 6:02 am

Naim Qassem’s appointment as Hezbollah’s new leader marks a new chapter for the Lebanese movement, with experts predicting that Iran could play a more active role in the short term.

This information was revealed in a report by Middle East Eye on Friday.

A month after the killing of previous leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli attack, the Shura Council on Tuesday named Naim Qassem as his successor.

A source close to Hezbollah told Middle East Eye that the council needed to make a quick decision on the party’s next leadership in this situation. In order to maintain stability in the leadership and strengthen coordination within the party, a source close to Hezbollah told Middle East Eye.

Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for nearly 32 years, was very experienced in military and regional affairs in the Middle East. However, Naim Qassem does not have much military experience, as he focuses mainly on organizational matters and theology.

As a result, it is believed that Iran may give its strategic advice to Hezbollah more strongly. Although Iran will probably try to increase its influence over Hezbollah strategically, avoiding direct intervention. So that the group’s internal governance structure and independence remain intact.

In this regard, Ali Rizk, a Lebanese political and security analyst, said, “Nasrallah was a reliable person for Iran in regional affairs, which was absent in the case of Qassem. As a result, Iran may be more active in this situation.”

Hezbollah is primarily a Lebanese armed group and its popularity and legitimacy depend on local support.

Analysts believe that Iran, while increasing its influence under Hezbollah’s leadership, will help make party decisions rather than participate directly.

The rise of a well-known leader Qassem

After Nasrallah was killed, many considered Hashem Safieddine to be the next leader. However, Safieddine was also killed in a second Israeli attack. This leaves Nasrallah’s longtime deputy, Naim Qassem, as the only known face in the party. His appointment signals continuity in Hezbollah’s leadership.

Future challenges

Qassem’s appointment is unlikely to change Hezbollah’s overall strategy in the fight against Israel. However, Qassem’s political role may be reflected.

He has been much more active in Lebanese politics in recent years than his predecessor, although he has rarely appeared in public due to assassination threats.

Analysts say Qassem’s new role may not have much impact on overall strategic matters. However, Qassem may have a new influence on the local political stage.

Although Nasrallah does not participate directly in politics, Qassem may be more active in local political activities. Political analysts believe that Qassem can play a more assertive role in ensuring Hezbollah’s strong position.

On the other hand, a source close to Hezbollah said that although Nasrallah was more moderate in his position, Qassem’s reputation could lead him to adopt a more coordinated stance.

The source added that it is certain that Qassem has major challenges ahead of him, as he will have to face political battles within Lebanon, which will include the presidency and internal disputes within the party.

Future plans

At the same time, Qassem will have to fulfill the responsibility of rebuilding Hezbollah’s organization, gaining support from those around him, restoring trust and restoring the party’s stability before the war.
In this regard, Ali Rizk said that Hezbollah currently sees Qassem as the right person to be its leader. Because the United States and internal opponents are trying to exploit any possible weakness.

A Hezbollah analyst said that Qassem’s personality is somewhat local compared to Nasrallah. He previously took on regional responsibilities and was active with a regional character and scale.

According to analysts, Nasrallah was the only Hezbollah leader who held a special status that no one else could achieve. Nasrallah was the party’s Secretary General and also the representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader in the Shura Council.

The source said that when Nasrallah was at the helm of the party, he represented Iran and had special influence inside Hezbollah. However, Qassem may not receive the same status.

Analysts believe that through Qassem, Hezbollah could move towards a party leadership, where members of the Shura Council would participate in decisions.

Source: Middle East Eye