How India sees the new Bangladesh
Last Updated on September 7, 2024 8:52 am
It was just 15 days before the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh and the departure of the Prime Minister. Just days after the country’s Supreme Court struck down the controversial quota system, India’s premier national daily Times of India headlined an editorial titled ‘Disturbing in Dhaka’.
In that editorial, it was also written, ‘The violence seen around the anti-quota movement is a symptom of the authoritarian and dictatorial politics of the Awami League. Now is the time for India to think about what happens after Hasina!'(‘India Must Think Beyond Hasina’).
As India’s Bangladesh policy and Sheikh Hasina have become almost synonymous over the past decade and a half, a leading mainstream daily in Delhi is suggesting India think ‘beyond Hasina’ – something that was almost unthinkable then.
Just two weeks after the publication of that editorial, with a dramatic change of pace in Dhaka, India is now having to do just that – or rather, what strategy will India pursue in a post-Hasina Bangladesh – Delhi is being forced to think.
Sheikh Hasina will not be in power in Dhaka forever, India could not have imagined that day would come so soon.
Let’s quote a bit more from the Times of India editorial, ‘Bangladesh today has actually failed to tick the basic check-boxes of democracy – namely a functioning opposition, fair and free elections and an impartial and independent judiciary.
The growing public anger against the Awami League has created a security dilemma or crisis for India as well.
“If the Awami League is ousted from power, India will in no way want a Pakistan-backed government to replace it.” As a result, they have to change direction now, to protect their strategic interests, they have to reach out to every class of society in Bangladesh.
While this warning sounded like a ‘prophecy’ or prophecy, as top officials in the halls of power in India are accepting in private discussions, almost every word of that editorial now matches letter by letter.
As a result, India now urgently needs to build bridges with the new interim government of that country. Delhi is trying to understand who has more influence in the government, and whether they even know those people or groups!
Besides, politically, the future of Awami League is dark for now, it is also understood. It is from that reality that alternative political forces can be established and how to think about it.
After the change of power in Bangladesh, the rise and rise of Islamic forces like Jamaat or Hefazat Islam in that country is also becoming a cause of concern for India.
Moreover, in the last few years, various state-owned and non-governmental organizations of India have invested hundreds of crores of rupees in various sectors in Bangladesh, how and to what extent it is possible to protect that investment at the moment of crisis – that is another big concern of India! Many such projects are now stalled.
And above all, the ousted Sheikh Hasina has been staying on Indian soil for a month now – the officials are now privately admitting that India ‘can’t swallow her, can’t swallow her!’
All in all, the dramatic events in Bangladesh just a month ago have put India in an unexpected crisis in various aspects of diplomatic, political, economic – bilateral relations. Exactly how Delhi is trying to handle them at the moment – this report tries to look at that!
‘Introduction’ to the Interim Government
The constitutional validity of the new interim government in Bangladesh may be questioned within that country too – but India did not take more than a few minutes to recognize that government.
Shortly after Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as the chief adviser to the interim government on August 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on his X handle to congratulate him on his new duties.
In that post, Mr. Modi also said that India will be committed to work together to “fulfill the dreams” of the people of the two countries. A few days later India organized the ‘Global South’ summit, Muhammad Yunus also participated on behalf of Bangladesh and addressed the meeting virtually. Later there was a telephone conversation between the two.
As a result, in the eyes of India, there was never any doubt that he is the new head of government of Bangladesh. Not only to recognize this new government, India has repeatedly made it clear that Sheikh Hasina is ‘past’ for Bangladesh in the last one month.
On August 6th, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told Parliament that “apparently” Sheikh Hasina has come to India by resigning as Prime Minister. The spokesperson of the ministry also referred to Sheikh Hasina as ‘former prime minister’ several times.
So, no matter how controversial or shrouded in mystery Sheikh Hasina’s departure from Dhaka is, India has accepted the new reality of the country and started building relations with the new government.
At a book launch event in Delhi last week, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said that since the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, the relationship between the two countries has gone through many ups and downs – but when the government in power in Dhaka, Delhi will continue to have relations with them ‘it is normal’!
At the same time, he said, ‘We also have to accept that political change will happen and that such change will sometimes be ‘disruptive’. In that case we obviously have to see where our mutual interests align.’
As a result, Delhi is now emphasizing on identifying the areas where India’s ‘interests’ can meet even with the new government of Bangladesh. And even before that, it is time to get to know the new government well.
A top South Block official was saying, ‘To be honest, we don’t know many of the advisers or policy makers of this new government very well. I don’t know how they came to the government, who recommended their names.
Even Muhammad Yunus cannot claim to know or understand everything. So you can say, in these early days, we are emphasizing on getting to know and understand them well.
When India’s High Commissioner Prannoy Kumar Verma went to Dhaka to meet the Chief Adviser a few days ago, India’s Ministry of External Affairs described the meeting as ‘introduction’. As a result, it is understood that the last one month was a phase of dialogue between the two parties – which can be taken for quite some time.
Communication with BNP?
For the past decade and a half, a major complaint against India in Bangladesh has been that they have only maintained relations with the ruling party Awami League and tried to see everything in Bangladesh through the ‘Awami Prism’.
Interestingly, Delhi has never completely denied this allegation. Rather, they have tried to defend themselves by saying that parties who have always played anti-India politics or who have a track record of not having relations with India when they are in power – how can they be related?
Moreover, India had another point about the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or BNP, that India could not have any relationship with them until they clearly left Jamaat-e-Islami.
In fact, the Jamaat’s political or religious ideology is so ‘untouchable’ to India that it is not possible for India to trust any political partner or partner of the Jamaat – this is the argument that has been given in Delhi’s think tank circuit and academia for so long.
However, many observers believe that the events of the last month in Dhaka have paved the way for India to build a new political equation in Bangladesh.
In particular, the way the distance between BNP and Jamaat is growing recently on various issues is also seen as a positive sign by the policy makers of India. They are also of the opinion that the task of building India’s relationship with the ‘Jamaat-free’ BNP can be much easier.
Another thing is that India’s communication at all levels with the BNP leadership has been completely suspended for so long, which is also not right – say many analysts in India. They claim that some channels of communication were open, though not always openly.
Perhaps one such person is Salahuddin Ahmed, a member of the BNP’s standing committee and a trusted leader of the Zia family – who has recently returned to Bangladesh after spending nearly a decade in India.
Two or four days after the fall of Sheikh Hasina, Salahuddin Ahmed had a long conversation with this reporter just before he returned to Bangladesh.
Notably, he did not once blame Delhi for years of not being able to return to India despite being acquitted of all cases of ‘illegal entry’ in India – rather he put all the blame on the Sheikh Hasina government.
Besides the way the Indian government has supported him during his long ‘expatriate life’ in India, allowing him to visit his wife and family members regularly at his guesthouse in Shillong, or even allowing him to go to Delhi for treatment – he is grateful to India, Salahuddin Ahmed says. did not
Some observers of India think that Ehen Salahuddin Ahmed can play an important role in building a bridge between BNP and India in the coming days. But what will be India’s attitude towards Awami League, a long-time friend, if the relationship is formed with BNP?
It is no longer a ‘binary’, that if one exists, the other cannot exist! India will definitely want the Awami League to participate in the next elections of that country and there will be an atmosphere of fair competition,” said a top official in Delhi.
The future of bilateral projects
On August 27, a report by India’s leading economic newspaper, The Economic Times, reported that the total amount owed by five Indian power companies to Bangladesh exceeded one billion or one billion dollars. Of this, Adani Power alone is said to owe $800 million as on June 30, 2024. The company exports the entire output of its thermal power plant located at Godda in Jharkhand to Bangladesh.
In addition, various other companies like SEIL Energy, PTC India, NTPC (DVC and Tripura) and Power Grid also have billions of dollars of payments pending with Bangladesh, the report said.
The report also cited concerns that political instability in Bangladesh could disrupt the prospect of this payment.
In the meantime, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal also said that almost all bilateral projects between Bangladesh and India have stopped since August 5, and many workers have been forced to return to India. He also informed that the work of these projects will not be resumed quickly if the situation is not normal.
It is known that the future of many projects like Rampal’s Maitri thermal power plant or Numaligarh-Parvatipur energy pipeline has also become uncertain. So is the huge investment of various Indian companies in various sectors including energy, electricity, infrastructure in Bangladesh now at risk?
But Praveer Dey, an economist at Delhi-based think tank RAS, is not ready to give up just yet.
He is reminding that, although the new government of Bangladesh talks about revising various agreements or understandings with India, it has not canceled any Indian project in that country.
Dr. Dey said, “Furthermore, such investments are always covered by a ‘sovereign guarantee’ or sovereign guarantee.” In other words, if the project is cancelled, the state is responsible for compensating the loss.’
When the Maldives took over the management of their country’s main airport from an Indian company a few years ago, the company was able to go to international arbitration in Singapore and collect huge compensation.
While there is no such possibility in the case of Bangladesh, Delhi has already realized that it will take some time to overcome the country’s economic crisis and foreign exchange shortage, and that Indian companies will have to wait longer to get a return on investment.
Sheikh Hasina and so on
Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has brought additional discomfort for India in this complex situation in Dhaka-Delhi bilateral relations. He has been staying in the Indian capital for the past one month.
India understands that if he is granted political asylum in India, it may hinder the re-establishment of relations with the interim government of Bangladesh and with the common people of that country.
But despite that, not standing by Sheikh Hasina, who has been a close ally and confidant of India for the past 50 years, is not an ‘option’ or option for India!
As a result, India has been extending all kinds of hospitality to him with due dignity and due respect since day one. But for how long it should be done, at this moment India also has no clear idea about that.
India’s former top diplomat Dr. Mohan Kumar, who was in charge of the Bangladesh department in the Ministry of External Affairs for a long time, thinks that India has the means to exploit this “crisis”.
He says, “A political analyst in America said, no ‘crisis’ should be wasted!” I mean every crisis can be turned into an opportunity – and I think that’s true in this case as well.’
Dr. India has a very important thing to learn from the ‘disaster’ related to Sheikh Hasina. Mohan Kumar thinks. He says, ‘One of the biggest flaws in our Neighborhood First policy is that in many cases, we have invested politically in neighboring countries on an individual, not institutionally!’
Many observers in Delhi actually believe that India has made such ‘mistakes’ before with Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, Mohamed Nasheed in Maldives, Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan, Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka or Baburam Bhattarai in Nepal.
I believe that if we learn from the Hasina crisis and invest in ‘structural’ or structural factors in friendly countries instead of individual ones, it will be much more fruitful. The task is difficult, but not impossible’, says Dr. Kumar.
And this is how he argues that Bangladesh-caused ‘crisis’ can be changed to ‘opportunity’ in India.
But finding ‘new friends’ in that country after the change in Bangladesh and then investment of friendship in the ‘structural’ factor – all in all the task will not be easy at all, India’s top policy makers are realizing that in just one month!
Source: BBC