Is India getting old before it gets rich?

Last Updated on December 24, 2024 6:08 am

India has overtaken China to become the world’s most populous country. This information was obtained from a UN survey last year. Now one might think that this country of about 1.45 billion people might be silent about further population growth. But is that really the case?

The issue has come to the center of discussion again. Because the leaders of the two southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have recently encouraged more children.

Andhra Pradesh is considering giving ‘incentives’ to encourage couples to have more children, citing low fertility rates and an aging population. Andhra Pradesh has already scrapped the ‘two-child policy’ for local elections.

Not only that, it is speculated that the neighboring state of Telangana may also take the same step soon. Leaders of another neighboring state, Tamil Nadu, have also been heard saying similar things in a slightly ‘exaggerated’ way.

Incidentally, India’s fertility rate has declined significantly. India’s fertility rate has now fallen from 5.7 children per woman in 1950 to 2.

Meanwhile, 17 out of 29 states and union territories have fallen below the replacement level (two children per woman). This rate of two children per woman is called the replacement level, which means a level at which the birth rate is sufficient to maintain population stability.

Five states in South India (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana) are playing a leading role in India’s demographic transformation.

These states have already achieved replacement level earlier than other states. Kerala reached this milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993 and the rest in the mid-2000s.

Five southern states

Currently, the fertility rate in five southern states is below 1.6. Karnataka has 1.6 and Tamil Nadu has 1.4. In other words, the fertility rate in these states is similar to or lower than that of many European countries.

These states are currently in a state of anxiety. They fear that the country’s electoral representation, (state-wise) parliamentary seats and central revenue distribution will be significantly affected by the differences in population between different states.

Srinivas Goli, a professor of demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences, told the BBC that they (these states) fear that they (these states) will suffer from effective population control policies.

Although they (these states) have a significant contribution in terms of their economic capacity and central revenue.

These southern Indian states are grappling with another major concern, and that is the redrawing of constituencies in the upcoming 2026 elections, which is going to happen for the first time in India since 1976.

The electoral boundaries will be redrawn again due to demographic changes. It is estimated that the economically prosperous southern states may lose their parliamentary seats due to the population-based calculation.

Since central revenue is allocated to states based on their population, many fear that this will make it more difficult for these states to fight economically. At the same time, it may also limit their freedom to make policies.

Demographers K. S. James and Shubhra Kriti explain that populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar may get more seats due to the redrawing of boundaries.

On the other hand, southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh may face losses, which may also change their (those three states) political representation.

However, many, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have indicated that there will be no rush to change the revenue sharing and parliamentary seat allocation.

Goli said, “As a demographer, I do not think the states should worry too much about these issues. This can be resolved through constructive discussions between the Centre and the state governments.”

What is the main challenge?

According to demographers, the main challenge in India is the rapid decline in fertility rate, which is leading to an ageing society.

While it took countries like France and Sweden 120 and 80 years respectively to increase the elderly population from 7 percent to 14 percent, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years.

India’s rapid increase in elderly population is linked to a decline in fertility rate. In most countries, fertility rates naturally decline with improved living standards, urbanization and education. Infant mortality rates also decline.

However, despite India’s moderate socio-economic progress, fertility rates have declined rapidly. This is due to aggressive family welfare programs.

Under these programs, measures such as limiting the number of children, giving incentives or incentives and in some cases discouraging couples from having more children created an environment for small families in the country.

But is this an unintended consequence? Let us take Andhra Pradesh as an example. Mr. Goli explains that the state has a fertility rate comparable to Sweden. But Andhra Pradesh’s per capita income is 28 times lower than Sweden’s.

The question now is – can these states, despite their mounting debt burden and limited resources, ensure higher pensions or social security for their rapidly growing elderly population?

According to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) ‘India Ageing Report’, more than 40 per cent of older Indians (aged 60 and above) belong to the poorest ‘wealth quintile’, i.e. the bottom 20 per cent of the population based on wealth distribution.

According to Goli, this means that ‘India is getting old before it gets rich.’

On the other hand, there is also a fear of creating a shortage of people to look after the growing elderly population. Demographers warn that India’s healthcare, community centres and old age homes are not prepared for such a change.

Urbanization, migration and a changing labor market have also affected family ties, which are considered strong in India.

The monogamous family structure did not create a shortage of people to take care of the elderly. But in the changing circumstances, it (urbanization, migration) is having an impact on senior citizens.

Just as migration from populous to less populous states can reduce the age gap among the working-age population, it can also spread anti-immigration concerns.

Meanwhile, earlier this month, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteers Organization) chief Mohan Bhagwat said that couples should have at least three children to secure India’s future.

He recently said at a meeting that according to population science, when growth drops below 2.1, a society destroys itself. It does not have to destroy anyone.

However, while Mohan Bhagwat’s concerns may have some basis, demographers say they are not entirely correct. “If the fertility rate is too low, the population will decline rapidly in a decade or two,” demographer Tim Dyson of the London School of Economics told the BBC.

A birth rate of 1.8 per woman leads to a slow, manageable population decline. But at a birth rate of 1.6 or less, the population can decline rapidly and uncontrollably.

India needs to raise the retirement age, demographers say. In addition, related policies must be activated. On the other hand, better health services and stronger social protection must also be prioritized, keeping in mind the productive elderly population.

India must make better use of its demographic dividend. Economic growth occurs only when a country has a large working-age population.