Myanmar rebel alliance splits, second-largest group joins junta

Last Updated on February 2, 2025 5:53 am

China’s diplomatic efforts to end the civil war in Myanmar have yielded results. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the second-largest armed group in the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has signed a ceasefire agreement with the country’s military junta government under Beijing’s mediation, The Irrawaddy reported.

Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, the group will complete the withdrawal of fighters from Lashio, the largest city in northern Shan State, by June this year. MNDAA fighters captured the city in August last year after nearly a year of fighting with the junta.

In 2019, three rebel groups, namely the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Taung National Liberation Army (TALA), and the Arakan Army (AA), formed an alliance called the Three Brotherhood Alliance. It is also known as the 3BHA.

The second largest group among them is the MNDAA, also known as the Kokang Army. Almost three years after the Myanmar army seized power, the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched an operation against the military junta in November 2023. The operation was called ‘Operation 1027’. The alliance’s operation was a huge success.

The MNDAA took control of Lashio, the capital of Shan State bordering China, and a large area around it. Meanwhile, the Arakan Army took control of Rakhine State bordering Bangladesh. The group is now moving forward with plans to form an ‘independent state’ with Rakhine as its center.

According to multiple reports, most of Myanmar is now under the control of the rebel groups. For example, the Arakan Army (AA), a rebel group in Myanmar’s western Rakhine state, which borders Bangladesh, now controls almost all of it. The junta is desperate to regain these lost territories. It is using all kinds of sophisticated weapons such as fighter jets and drones in the fight.

In this situation, China’s strong diplomatic efforts led to the signing of a ceasefire agreement between the MNDAA and the Myanmar army this month. Through this, both sides promised to stop hostile activities against each other. Under the agreement, the MNDAA will finalize the withdrawal of its fighters from the city of Lashio before the end of June this year.

Earlier this month, the junta government’s Minister for Foreign Investment, Kan Zao, claimed that Chinese engineering companies were working safely under the siege of junta forces in Kyaukpyu.

He also said that the MNDAA fighters active in the area did not launch any attacks on the ‘special economic zone’ and deep sea port being built by the junta-run company ‘Kyaukpyu SEZ Consortium’ and the Chinese company CITIC.

Some military and diplomatic observers consider this incident ‘significant’ in the context of the civil war that has been going on for the past one and a half years. The government of Chinese President Xi Jinping is actively working to create an alternative trade route with the Indian Ocean through the Kyaukpyu seaport. This port is one of the parts of the 1,700-kilometer-long ‘China-Myanmar Economic Corridor’.

However, the largest partner of the rebel armed alliance, the Arakan Army, and another group, the TNLA, are reluctant to compromise with the junta. The ‘China National Army’ (CNA) and the Chinaland Defense Force (CDF), the ‘Kachin Liberation Defense Force’ (KLDF), and the ‘People’s Defense Force’ (PDF), the armed forces of the self-proclaimed ‘National Unity Government’ supporting Suu Kyi, have not yet given a message to withdraw from the fight.

The ‘Shan State Progress Party’, an opposition political party active in Shan State, and its armed wing, the Shan State Army, are also said to be adamant about continuing the anti-junta campaign.