86 percent of Myanmar is under the control of the rebels

Last Updated on June 1, 2024 4:33 pm

86 percent of Myanmar has gone under the control of the rebels. The country’s ruling military junta government has lost control over most of the country’s regions, especially the border areas. This comes after Myanmar’s three ethnic rebel forces launched a coordinated offensive in October last year. Two reports were released on Thursday assessing the ongoing conflict in Myanmar. That is the picture that emerged. Al Jazeera.

According to the report of The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), since 2022, the overall trajectory of the Myanmar conflict is now – “the control of resistance groups is increasing and the military junta is losing control.” And this process has accelerated in October last year (2023). Over the past eight months, ethnic armed groups have strengthened their position by expanding the areas under their control.

In February 2021, Myanmar’s military overthrew the elected government led by pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The Southeast Asian country has been in turmoil ever since. The junta government brutally suppressed the protests that broke out across the country after the military coup. Victims of repression and activists of Suu Kyi’s party took up arms and formed armed resistance. They joined the ethnic rebels who were already waging an armed struggle against the military in various parts of the country.

The combined forces launched a coordinated offensive against the junta forces in October last year called ‘Operation 1027’. Fighting is currently going on between the combined insurgents and the military on multiple fronts.

Junta soldiers are forced to leave some check post, military base almost every day. As a result, the weakness of the ruling junta is gradually emerging. According to the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) report, junta authorities have lost control of cities in 86 percent of the region. These cities are now completely in the hands of the rebels. The SAC-M says the military junta no longer controls enough territory to carry out the core functions of the Myanmar state. The junta has withdrawn from significant territory and is still forced to take a defensive position in most of the areas of the country where it has a presence. The military’s weakness became apparent after Myanmar’s three ethnic rebel forces launched a coordinated offensive in October last year.

Since then, the junta has lost control of almost all of the country’s border with Thailand in the east and much of the Bay of Bengal coast in the west in a series of attacks by ethnic forces. The international non-profit group Crisis Group said in its report that ethnic armed forces that have won many military victories have consolidated control over large swaths of their homelands, and many are moving towards establishing small autonomous states. According to the Crisis Group, the military’s growing defeat has fueled disillusionment among elites in the capital Naypyidaw, putting the future of junta chief Ming Aung Hlaing in serious doubt. However, he appointed his loyal officers to senior positions in the military.

The group said Hlaing might be able to retain his position this way. But may face a coup plot due to growing discontent. If Myanmar continues to lose control of its border areas and non-state administration grows, neighboring countries, regional alliances and the international community may increase their contact with insurgents, both reports said.