Where is the Iran-Israel conflict going?

Last Updated on October 4, 2024 9:11 am

On the one hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that after Iran’s attack inside Israel for the second time in six months, “Iran will have to pay the price”. On the other hand, if Israel tries to retaliate, Iran has warned that it will retaliate.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the missile attack was carried out in response to the killing of top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian commanders.

The BBC’s international editor Jeremy Bowen said in his analysis that Iran appeared to have attempted to cause ‘serious damage’. As a result, what is Israel’s response is the big question now.

Where can the situation in the Middle East go in the activities of the two conflicting countries and their allies?

When Iran attacked Israel last April, the effort to make something visible was noticeable. But that remains an effort, as almost all of their missiles in service are shot down by Israeli and American defense systems.

This time it’s different. Iran appears to have struck hard in an attempt to inflict serious damage. This time their efforts are much more aggressive.

Israeli attitudes

In April, Netanyahu was barred from launching a major counterattack by Joe Biden. He was of the opinion that Israel would win. Israel also did not take any drastic action.

But last time Israel’s international partners urged the country to be patient, it is unlikely to happen this time.

Now a different wind is blowing in Israel.

A glimpse of this can be found in the tweets of the country’s former Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett. Bennett used very strong language.

He wrote, this is the biggest opportunity to change the face of the Middle East in 50 years.

Bennett believes Israel should focus on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure to “severely cripple the terrorist regime”.

He is not the prime minister now though. However, it is believed to be likely to happen in the future, perhaps because of the attempt to present itself as tough. But his statement surely reflects the attitude of at least a section of the country’s citizens.

At the moment, the possibility of an Israeli attack on anything that could cause damage to Iran’s economy cannot be ruled out, says Jeremy Bowen. It may be a nuclear project or a petrochemical plant.

If Israel takes any retaliatory action against Tehran, Iran will target all Israeli infrastructure.

The announcement was made by Major General Mohammad Baqeri, Joint Chief of the Armed Forces of Iran.

He also said that Iran’s specialized military wing, the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is ready to launch another missile attack against Israel.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah has been acting as a defensive shield for Iran. In the event that Iran’s nuclear facilities were attacked, Hezbollah’s arsenal of sophisticated weapons could be used as a countermeasure.

But, according to US and Israeli authorities, half of the militant group’s weapons have been destroyed in the past two weeks. Their top leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrullah was killed, Israeli troops entered Lebanon.

As a result, the resistance that Iran had due to Hezbollah has been greatly weakened.

As Jeremy Bowen analyzes, this allows Israel to operate more freely.

And Frank Gardner says, Israel’s current strategy seems to be trying to go both ways. Eliminating the enemy with stealth attacks, airstrikes, and countermeasures—convincing Iran and shadow powers that striking Israel would be met with greater force.

However, Hezbollah has claimed to resist the Israeli forces in the front war in Lebanon.

They said that there was a face-to-face fight twice on Wednesday. According to the organization, these are the first stages of the war.

Israel will have a long-term plan to attack Iran. The inevitable military target would be the ground from which Tuesday’s missile strikes came.

Not only the place where the missiles are kept for firing, but also the command and control center and even the refueling centers should be covered.

At least 51 people were killed in an Israeli attack on Gaza’s Khan Yunis on Wednesday, the Hamas-run Health Ministry said.

In other words, the Israel-Gaza war, which started in October last year, has not yet reached an end.

On the other hand, Joe Biden is signaling to Iran by sending more troops to the Mediterranean Sea that if Israel is hit, it will be considered a US hit.

Due to these reasons, there is talk about the fear of spreading the war. Given the instability and turmoil created by the current course of events, the chances of a diplomatic solution have become very slim.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the growing fire in the Middle East is fast becoming an inferno.

He made this comment at the meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

However, Israel has declared Guterres unwelcome in their country.